Exchange rates forecasting for Project Control
Econometric forecasting and analysis for the GBP
Word count 1000-1100 plus SPSS graphs
Remarks: SPSS data and graphs will be provided
Meaning of exchange rates, impacts on economy, past fluctuations in GBP , black swan events, currency crisis GBP early 90s/ 2000s and Brexit, USD as world reserve currency,
Illustrate why forecasting currencies, currency risks assessment for project management is important
identify what the data is aiming to illustrate
Overview/explaining ARIMA and why better suited than other techniques for time series analysis
3) Forecasting GBP/EUR, GBP/USD exchange rates with ARIMA
a) this section needs to provide an illustration of the data (will be provided)
b) [as text ]for the adequacy of the performance metrics, evaluate ARIMA model via MAE, MAPE and RMSE
c) [as text] analyse/interpret actual vs forecast and implications for currency hedging in a project management environment (also currency risk assessment)
[as text] Predict future trends for 2021 & 2022 (incl. analysis) and disclose limitations, possible impacting factors.
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